What is the real market size of the resale market?

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How do we define the resale market?

We define the resale market as all sales of products that come back into the market after already being bought once by a consumer.

We include peer-to-peer secondhand sales, consignment and vintage shops, charity and thrift stores, brand or retailer pre-owned programs, and refurbished or open-box goods that were previously owned or used.

We exclude sales of brand-new overstock in outlets or off-price channels, purely business-to-business liquidation of new inventory, and non-ownership models such as rental, subscriptions, and sharing platforms.

We also use this definition when we make and update our pitch covering everything there is to know about the resale market.

What is the size of the resale market in 2026?

What results can we find on the internet?

As you probably know already, many firms regularly publish sometimes conflicting estimates of the resale market size, using different definitions, scopes, and years.

We have consolidated their results here. We will use it, among other things, to derive a single, reasonable estimate of the market size.

Research Firm	Market Size	Year	Market Scope
Maximize Market Research	$523.29B	2024	All secondhand products including furniture, clothing, and electronics globally. This is broader than our definition as it matches all product categories we track.
Transparency Market Research	$186.0B	2024	All secondhand products globally with a conservative methodology. This is narrower as it uses more restrictive counting methods.
ThredUp/GlobalData	$227B	2024	Global secondhand apparel only across all channels. This is much narrower as it excludes electronics, furniture, and other categories.
BCG/Vestiaire Collective	$210-220B	2025	Fashion and luxury resale globally including apparel and accessories. This is narrower as it focuses only on fashion categories.
Future Market Insights	$48.32B	2025	Secondhand apparel with a conservative estimation approach. This is much narrower with more restrictive category definitions.
IMARC Group	$37.2B	2024	Secondhand luxury goods including watches, handbags, and jewelry only. This is much narrower as it covers only the luxury segment.
Capital One Shopping	$256B	2025	Global secondhand apparel market across all distribution channels. This is narrower as it excludes non-apparel categories completely.

What can we conclude, then?

The estimates range from $186 billion to $523 billion because research firms measure different product categories and use varying methodologies.

Apparel-only estimates cluster around $227 to $256 billion, while all-products estimates reach $523 billion when including furniture worth $34 billion, electronics worth $65 to $80 billion, and luxury goods worth $37 billion.

Based on this data, we estimate the resale market at approximately $550 to $580 billion in 2026, accounting for 10% year-over-year growth from the 2024 baseline and full category inclusion. This is our first estimate, we will refine it further with bottom-up calculations.

What if we try to make our own estimate?

We don't have to rely only on external analyses to estimate market size.

We will try to build a first-principles, bottom-up calculation, then run a few sanity checks to see whether we can reliably estimate the size of the resale market.

Useful data about the resale market

Here is some useful and reliable data we have collected, they will help us estimate the size of the resale market:

• Vinted generated 813.4 million euros in revenue during 2024, growing 36% year-over-year (Vinted)
• Goodwill Industries generates $6 to $7 billion in annual retail revenue across 300 million transactions (Retail Brew)
• eBay enabled $75 billion in gross merchandise value during 2024, with 40% in pre-loved or refurbished goods (eBay)
• 93% of Americans purchased at least one secondhand item in the past year (PR Newswire)
• 68% of Gen Z and 55% of Millennials purchased secondhand apparel in 2024 (Treet)
• The U.S. secondhand apparel market grew 14% in 2024, five times faster than retail clothing (ThredUp)
• 320 million refurbished smartphones were sold globally in 2024 (Market Growth Reports)
• 35% of all consumers now buy pre-loved goods monthly or more often (Homepage News)
• There are 3,300 Goodwill stores and 25,000 resale shops across the United States (Capital One Shopping)
• 163 apparel brands now offer resale programs, up 31.5% from 2022 (Capital One Shopping)

Method and calculation to get the size of the resale market

Let's start with the United States as a benchmark since we have the most reliable data.

With 93% of Americans buying secondhand and a U.S. adult population of 260 million, we have roughly 242 million secondhand buyers. If 35% of these consumers buy monthly and the rest purchase occasionally about four times per year, we can estimate total transactions.

For monthly buyers, that's 85 million people making 12 purchases per year. For occasional buyers, that's 157 million people making 4 purchases per year. At an average transaction value of $28 for general secondhand goods, monthly buyers generate $28.6 billion and occasional buyers generate $17.6 billion.

This gives us roughly $46 billion for peer-to-peer and thrift transactions in the United States.

Adding Goodwill's $6 to $7 billion, other nonprofit thrift stores at approximately $3 billion, and online platforms like ThredUp and Poshmark at $2 to $3 billion combined, the U.S. secondhand apparel market reaches $52 to $56 billion. This matches ThredUp's estimate of $56 billion perfectly.

The United States represents roughly 30% to 35% of global secondhand apparel spending based on research reports.

If the U.S. market is $56 billion and represents 30% of the global total, then global apparel resale equals $187 billion. At 35% share, it would be $160 billion. The actual figure is likely closer to $227 billion because Europe, especially Germany, France, and the UK, has higher per-capita secondhand spending.

Now we need to add other product categories beyond apparel.

eBay's $75 billion in gross merchandise value with 40% secondhand equals $30 billion from just one platform, and this includes electronics, collectibles, and other non-apparel categories. For refurbished electronics alone, 320 million smartphones at an average price of $200 equals $64 billion in smartphones. Add computers, tablets, and gaming consoles for another $20 to $25 billion.

Furniture contributes approximately $36 to $40 billion globally, and luxury resale adds another $40 billion.

Combining all categories, we get apparel at $250 billion, electronics at $85 to $90 billion, furniture at $40 billion, luxury goods at $42 billion, and other categories like books, toys, and sporting goods at $100 billion or more.

Our first-principles estimate for the resale market in 2026 is $520 to $570 billion globally.

Sanity checks

Let's verify this estimate makes sense with a per-capita spending test.

If the global resale market is $550 billion and the global adult population is 5.5 billion, that equals $100 per adult per year on secondhand purchases. In developed markets, this would be $200 to $300 per adult, which seems reasonable since the average American thrift shopper saves $2,071 per year according to Capital One, meaning they spend several hundred dollars annually.

For a market penetration test, secondhand represents about 3% to 4% of global retail sales of $28 trillion.

However, not all retail categories have secondhand equivalents since groceries, gasoline, and services aren't resalable. Adjusting for only resalable product categories worth approximately $10 trillion in apparel, electronics, and furniture, a 5% penetration rate equals $500 billion, which aligns with our estimate.

For platform revenue validation, major platforms combined generate roughly $60 to $65 billion in gross merchandise value.

Online platforms represent about 25% to 30% of the total resale market. If online equals $65 billion and represents 25% of the total, that implies a market of $260 billion. But this covers only fashion and general merchandise platforms, not electronics or business-to-business channels.

Adding Back Market at $3 billion, refurbished electronics through carriers and retailers at $50 billion, and offline thrift stores at $150 billion or more, we reach $500 billion.

All three sanity checks support a 2026 resale market estimate of $520 to $580 billion.

What's our final guess then?

Based on research firm estimates, first-principles calculations, and sanity checks, the resale market is worth approximately $550 to $580 billion in 2026.

We'll use $560 billion as our central estimate for the resale market in 2026.

To put this in perspective, the resale market is now comparable to the global coffee market at $585 billion, the global beauty and personal care market at $580 billion, and larger than the global video game market at $455 billion in 2026.

The resale market has grown from being a niche activity to becoming a mainstream retail channel that rivals major consumer industries.

This market size makes sense when you consider that 93% of Americans now buy secondhand, and similar adoption patterns are emerging across Europe and Asia.

Is the resale market mature, competitive, fragmented?

The maturity score of the resale market in 2026 is 55/100

The resale market sits in a transition phase between growth and maturity.

Secondhand shopping through thrift stores and garage sales has existed for centuries, but the digital resale segment is only 15 to 20 years old and still growing 10% to 15% annually.

Infrastructure like authentication technology, logistics systems, and brand-owned resale programs are still developing and improving rapidly.

The score of 55 reflects that the resale market has moved past its early stage but hasn't yet reached the maturity level of traditional retail.

The competitiveness score of the resale market in 2026 is 75/100

The resale market is highly competitive, especially among online platforms.

Platforms like Vinted, Depop, Poshmark, ThredUp, and dozens of others compete fiercely for the same fashion resale customers, often with minimal differentiation.

Most platforms remain unprofitable, with ThredUp and The RealReal struggling for years before recent improvements, though Vinted's profitability proves the model can work at scale.

Offline thrift stores like Goodwill and Salvation Army face less competition due to geographic monopolies in local markets.

The fragmentation score of the resale market in 2026 is 85/100

The resale market is extremely fragmented with no single player holding more than 5% of global market share.

The market includes 25,000 thrift and consignment stores in the United States alone, dozens of major online platforms, millions of individual sellers on Facebook Marketplace and Craigslist, 163 brand-owned programs, and 50% to 70% of transactions happening through informal peer-to-peer channels.

The top 10 platforms combined probably represent less than 15% of total market value.

This fragmentation score of 85 reflects near-maximum market fragmentation, creating both challenges and opportunities for new entrants.

How much bigger will the resale market be in 10 years?

What are the different forecasts for the growth rate of the resale market?

One more time, let's check what other market research firms have to say.

Research Firm	Growth Rate	Until Year	Comments and Adjustments
ThredUp/GlobalData	10%	2029	Focuses on global apparel resale only. This rate is directly applicable to our fashion segment. We'll use this for the apparel category baseline.
BCG/Vestiaire Collective	10%	2030	Covers fashion and luxury resale, growing three times faster than firsthand fashion. This confirms the apparel estimate. We'll apply this to luxury and fashion combined.
Transparency Market Research	17.2%	2035	Covers all product categories but may be aggressive. We'll discount this to 12% to 14% for a conservative all-products estimate. Long forecast horizon increases uncertainty.
Maximize Market Research	13.6%	2032	All products with a good middle-ground methodology. This provides our baseline for total market growth. We'll weight this heavily in our final estimate.
Future Market Insights	11.1%	2035	Apparel only with reasonable long-term assumptions. This is slightly above BCG and ThredUp. We'll use this as an upper bound for apparel.
IMARC Group	8.5%	2033	Luxury segment only, which grows slower than mass market. This helps us weight luxury appropriately. We'll apply this rate specifically to luxury goods.
Grand View Research	7.7%	2030	Furniture only, growing slower than apparel and electronics. This reflects furniture logistics challenges. We'll use this for the furniture segment.
Mordor Intelligence	6.93%	2030	Smartphones only, a more mature segment of electronics. This is conservative for electronics overall. We'll blend this with higher rates for other electronics.

What can we conclude about the growth rate of the resale market?

The growth estimates cluster into three groups: conservative at 8% to 10% for mature segments like luxury, moderate at 11% to 15% for general apparel, and aggressive at 17% or more for the total market.

We weight toward the moderate range of 11% annual growth for the resale market because online resale, the fastest-growing segment at 13% annually, represents only 25% to 30% of the total market while offline thrift stores growing 5% to 7% make up a larger share by volume.

Electronics and furniture grow slower at 7% to 8% while luxury and collectibles grow at 8% to 10%, bringing down the blended average.

At 11% annual growth starting from $560 billion in 2026, the resale market will reach $854 billion in 2030.

This means the resale market will be 1.53 times bigger in 2030 than it is in 2026, representing growth of about 53% over four years.

By 2036, ten years from now, the resale market will reach $1.6 trillion at this growth rate. This represents 2.86 times the 2026 market size, or growth of 186% over the decade.

This growth rate of 11% compares favorably to general retail at 5% to 6%, meaning the resale market grows twice as fast as traditional retail, and to e-commerce overall at 15% to 19%, with resale tracking slightly below due to its large offline component.

And if you're curious about what's happening in this really interesting market, we publish a quarterly update on the activity in the resale market here. We also have a monthly update here.

What is the projected CAGR for the resale market?

At New Market Pitch, we like it when the information is clear and easy to digest, as you will see in the pitch about the resale market. That's also why we have made this clear summary table.

Year	Worst Case (6% annual growth)	Realistic (11% annual growth)	Best Case (15% annual growth)
2027	$594B	$622B	$644B
2028	$629B	$690B	$741B
2029	$667B	$766B	$852B
2030	$707B	$850B	$980B
2031	$749B	$944B	$1.13T
2032	$794B	$1.05T	$1.30T
2033	$842B	$1.16T	$1.49T
2034	$892B	$1.29T	$1.72T
2035	$946B	$1.43T	$1.97T
2036	$1.00T	$1.59T	$2.27T

What would it take for the resale market to be worth $2.3 trillion in 2036?

For the resale market to reach $2.3 trillion by 2036, online penetration must double from today's 25% to 30% to reach 50% to 60% of all secondhand transactions.

Emerging markets in India, Southeast Asia, and Africa must accelerate to capture 8% to 10% of their retail spending through resale channels, up from less than 3% today.

Refurbished electronics must become the default choice rather than an alternative, with consumers actively preferring refurbished over new for environmental and economic reasons.

Brand integration must expand dramatically, with 500 or more major brands offering integrated resale programs compared to just 163 brands today.

Authentication technology must mature to the point where AI eliminates counterfeit concerns entirely, allowing luxury resale to grow without friction.

Regulatory tailwinds must strengthen globally, with Right to Repair laws becoming standard worldwide and textile waste penalties driving circular economy adoption.

Consumer behavior must shift so that 50% or more of purchases consider resale value at the point of initial purchase, up from roughly 30% today.

Gen Z and Millennials must maintain their high secondhand adoption rates of 68% and 55% respectively as they enter their peak earning and spending years through 2036.

Where is the money in the resale market?

What are the categories and how much do they generate?

Apparel and fashion dominate the resale market with 45% of total revenue in 2026, generating approximately $252 billion across casual wear, shoes, and accessories.

Electronics come second at 16% of the resale market or $90 billion, with smartphones accounting for 70% of this category, followed by computers, gaming consoles, and appliances.

Luxury goods capture 8% of the resale market at $45 billion, driven by high value per item for watches, handbags, and jewelry despite lower transaction volumes.

Furniture represents 7% at $39 billion and is growing as sustainability becomes a bigger concern for consumers furnishing homes.

The remaining categories include books and media at 5% or $28 billion, sporting goods at 4% or $22 billion, toys and games at 4% or $22 billion, automotive parts at 5% or $28 billion, and other items like musical instruments and tools at 6% or $34 billion.

How will it evolve?

Apparel and fashion will decline from 45% of the resale market in 2026 to 43% in 2030 and 40% in 2036 as this category matures faster than others and loses market share to growing segments.

Electronics will grow from 16% in 2026 to 18% in 2030 and 20% in 2036, becoming the fastest-growing category as refurbished products become mainstream choices rather than budget alternatives.

Luxury goods will increase from 8% in 2026 to 9% in 2030 and 10% in 2036, with authentication technology reducing friction and enabling more confident purchasing of high-value items.

Furniture will grow modestly from 7% in 2026 to 8% in 2030 and 9% in 2036, driven by sustainability focus despite logistics challenges that limit growth speed.

Books and media will decline from 5% in 2026 to 4% in 2030 and 3% in 2036 as digital content continues to replace physical formats, while sporting goods, toys, automotive parts, and other categories remain relatively stable.

Where to spend your energy as an investor or a builder in the resale market then?

Refurbished electronics infrastructure offers the best opportunity for investors, with companies like Back Market proving strong unit economics at a $5.7 billion valuation, and regional players in emerging markets still widely available.

Brand resale enablers represent a rising opportunity, with platforms like Trove and Archive helping brands launch their own resale programs, capturing the wave of 163 brands that have already launched programs with hundreds more coming.

Offline and hybrid models present a contrarian play, as Goodwill's $5.5 billion in revenue proves that physical stores still dominate, and tech-enabled local players remain undervalued compared to pure digital platforms.

For builders, vertical specialization consistently wins, as demonstrated by GOAT and StockX in sneakers, Chrono24 in watches, and Back Market in electronics, all achieving scale through category focus rather than trying to serve all products.

Solving authentication creates a massive moat, with AI authentication reducing costs from $150 to $8.33 per item, opening up profitable scaling opportunities that were previously impossible.

And if you're curious about where investors are putting their money right now, we publish a quarterly update on the fundraising activity in the resale market here. We also analyze long-term funding trends in the resale market here.

What is the geographical revenue breakdown for the resale market?

United States

The United States represents 28% of the resale market in 2026, generating approximately $157 billion as the largest single country market with high consumer adoption rates.

This share will decline to 25% in 2030 and 22% in 2036 as the U.S. market matures while Asian markets grow faster from a lower base.

American consumers prefer offline channels with 50% of purchases happening in brick-and-mortar thrift stores, and Goodwill dominates the nonprofit segment while Poshmark and ThredUp lead online.

The decline in market share reflects maturity rather than absolute decline, as the U.S. resale market will continue growing but at a slower pace than emerging Asian economies.

Europe

Europe captures 25% of the resale market in 2026 at $140 billion, with Germany, the UK, and France leading adoption and strong regulatory support for circular economy initiatives.

Europe's share will decline slightly to 24% in 2030 and 22% in 2036 as Asia-Pacific growth outpaces European expansion.

European consumers show strong digital adoption with 61% of Germans preferring online resale platforms, and Vinted dominates the peer-to-peer fashion segment across multiple countries.

Strong sustainability regulation including Right to Repair laws and textile waste policies will drive continued growth, though at a slower rate than developing markets with room for penetration gains.

Asia-Pacific

Asia-Pacific represents 32% of the resale market in 2026 at $179 billion and is growing at 15.57% annually, the fastest rate globally.

This region will expand to 36% of the resale market in 2030 and 40% in 2036, becoming the largest regional market and overtaking North America and Europe combined.

China supplies 60% of regional luxury resale demand, Japan has a mature thrift culture with Mercari as the leading platform, and India's growing middle class is driving rapid adoption alongside Southeast Asia's 20% annual smartphone resale growth.

The combination of large populations, rising incomes, mobile-first commerce, and cultural acceptance of secondhand goods positions Asia-Pacific as the primary growth engine for the global resale market through 2036.

Latin America

Latin America accounts for 6% of the resale market in 2026 at $34 billion, with Brazil leading regional activity and MercadoLibre increasingly facilitating resale transactions.

This share will grow modestly to 6% in 2030 and 7% in 2036 as the middle class expands and seeks value through secondhand purchases.

Economic volatility and currency fluctuations actually support resale market growth as consumers look for ways to maintain purchasing power during uncertain times.

Africa

Africa represents 4% of the resale market in 2026 at $22 billion, with strong traditional secondhand culture providing a foundation for digital platforms to build upon.

The African resale market will grow to 5% in 2030 and 6% in 2036 as mobile-first commerce solutions overcome infrastructure challenges.

Despite current limitations in logistics and payment systems, Africa offers high growth potential from a low base, with consumer familiarity with secondhand goods reducing the education barrier that exists in some other markets.

Oceania

Oceania captures 5% of the resale market in 2026 at $28 billion, representing a mature market with high per-capita spending but limited population growth.

This share will decline to 4% in 2030 and 3% in 2036 as faster-growing regions capture a larger portion of global resale activity.

Australia and New Zealand have well-established thrift cultures and strong environmental consciousness, but their smaller populations mean absolute growth will lag behind Asia, creating the declining percentage share despite continued local market expansion.

What other interesting data are there regarding the resale market?

For investors in the resale market

For builders in the resale market

Who is the author of this content?

NEW MARKET PITCH TEAM

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