Is the semiconductor industry growing now?

Last updated: 21 October 2026
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Whether you're building or investing in the semiconductor industry, our report covers everything you need to know: the players, the money, and what's coming next.

Summary

Yes, the semiconductor industry is growing at an extraordinary pace, with global chip sales reaching $159.7 billion in August 2026, up 144.3% year over year. The market is heading toward a record year, although most of the growth is concentrated in AI computing and memory.

The scale of the expansion is remarkable. WSTS forecasts $1.51 trillion in semiconductor sales for 2026, compared with approximately $792 billion in 2025. The Semiconductor Industry Association has since suggested that sales could exceed $1.6 trillion.

Memory is doing much of the heavy lifting. WSTS expects memory revenue to grow approximately 250% and exceed $800 billion, potentially accounting for around 80% of the semiconductor industry's additional revenue in 2026.

That concentration makes the boom more fragile than the headline growth suggests. A large share of the increase comes from rising memory prices rather than an equivalent increase in the number of chips sold. If those prices reverse, industry revenue could fall even while physical chip consumption remains strong.

Nvidia, TSMC and Micron illustrate three different ways companies are benefiting. Nvidia's quarterly revenue doubled, TSMC's advanced manufacturing business expanded rapidly, and Micron's quarterly revenue increased almost fivefold. The same AI infrastructure investment wave is enriching several layers of the supply chain.

Growth is spreading beyond AI, but the difference in speed remains enormous. Texas Instruments reported 28% annual revenue growth, while WSTS expects analog semiconductors to grow 10%. These are healthy results, yet they barely resemble the expansion occurring in memory.

There's a strange consequence for consumers. Higher memory prices are helping chip manufacturers post record results while making smartphones and PCs more expensive. IDC expects smartphone shipments to decline 16.7% in 2026, even as their average selling price rises 27.6%.

Semiconductor manufacturers are responding with major capital investments. SEMI forecasts $165.9 billion in manufacturing equipment sales in 2026 and $229.5 billion by 2028. These investments support future growth, but they also create the possibility of excess capacity once today's shortages ease.

Profitability is becoming increasingly uneven. Nvidia and TSMC are generating exceptional margins, and Micron is benefiting from record memory prices. Traditional manufacturers such as Texas Instruments are recovering, while Intel's expensive manufacturing investments continue to weigh on its financial performance. Chip designers, memory makers and traditional manufacturers sit in different positions, which the market maps in our report covering the semiconductor market lay out.

The boom is geographically broad but commercially concentrated. Every major region reported semiconductor sales growth in August, with the Americas leading at 180.9% year over year. Yet the most valuable advanced manufacturing and memory capacity remains heavily concentrated in Taiwan and South Korea.

Our conclusion is that semiconductor growth should continue into 2027, but the current pace cannot last indefinitely. WSTS forecasts another 27% expansion next year, well below 2026's projected 90%. The decisive question is how much growth remains once memory prices stabilize and AI infrastructure spending becomes less explosive.

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Is the semiconductor industry actually growing right now?

Yes, the global semiconductor industry is booming right now, with worldwide chip sales more than doubling year over year and the market heading toward a record year.

According to the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), global chip sales reached $159.7 billion in August 2026, up 144.3% from $65.4 billion a year earlier. Sales also increased 8% from July, marking the industry's eighteenth consecutive month of growth. By August, cumulative annual sales had already passed $1 trillion for the first time.

The forecasts have moved just as dramatically. World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) projected $1.51 trillion in global sales for 2026, while the SIA's more recent update suggested that the industry could exceed $1.6 trillion.

The catch is that this boom looks very different depending on which chips we examine. AI processors and memory are seeing extraordinary demand and pricing power, while some traditional electronics markets are struggling with higher component costs. The semiconductor industry is clearly growing, but the biggest gains are concentrated in a surprisingly small part of the market.

Why is the semiconductor industry growing so fast?

The semiconductor industry's current growth is being driven mainly by AI data centers, which need huge amounts of processing power, advanced memory and increasingly expensive chips.

Nvidia's fiscal second-quarter 2027 revenue reached $96.2 billion, up 106% year over year, with data-center products contributing $89 billion. The demand also reaches companies that manufacture chips rather than design them. TSMC generated $46.72 billion in third-quarter revenue, up 41.2% in US dollars.

Memory manufacturers are benefiting even more dramatically. Micron reported $54.23 billion in fiscal fourth-quarter revenue, compared with $11.32 billion a year earlier, almost a fivefold increase. The jump reflects both strong demand and much higher memory prices. Revenue jumps that mix real demand with higher memory prices are among the signals we watch quarter by quarter in our semiconductor market report.

These three companies operate at different points in the supply chain. Nvidia sells computing platforms, TSMC manufactures advanced chips, and Micron supplies memory. All three are benefiting from the same surge in AI infrastructure spending.

According to WSTS, memory semiconductor revenue is expected to grow approximately 250% in 2026, while logic chips should grow 37%. Those two categories explain most of the wider industry's extraordinary revenue growth.

Is today's semiconductor boom bigger than previous growth cycles?

Yes, the semiconductor boom is much bigger than a normal industry recovery, with projected annual growth more than thirteen times the industry's long-term average.

The SIA estimates that semiconductor sales grew at an average annual rate of approximately 6.8% between 2001 and 2024. WSTS's latest forecast calls for 90% growth in 2026.

The contrast becomes even clearer when we compare recent years. Global semiconductor sales fell 8.2% in 2023, recovered 19.7% in 2024 and increased another 25.6% in 2025. The projected acceleration in 2026 therefore comes after two years of strong growth.

Using SIA's historical figures and WSTS's latest forecast, we calculate that annual semiconductor revenue could be approximately 2.87 times its 2023 level. That's an extraordinary change for an established industry that was already worth more than $500 billion three years earlier.

The latest monthly figures confirm that the expansion hasn't slowed yet. Sales increased from $147.9 billion in July to $159.7 billion in August, according to the SIA's updated three-month-moving-average series.

Year Global semiconductor sales Annual growth
2019 $412B -11.9%
2020 $439B +6.5%
2021 $555B +26.5%
2022 $574.1B +3.5%
2023 $526.8B -8.2%
2024 $630.5B +19.7%
2025 $791.7B +25.6%
2026 forecast $1,510B Approximately +90%

Historical figures are rounded industry totals, while the 2026 projection comes from WSTS's spring forecast. Growth rates may differ slightly because of rounding and statistical revisions.

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Is AI responsible for most semiconductor industry growth?

Yes, AI infrastructure is behind most of the semiconductor industry's projected growth, with memory alone potentially generating around four-fifths of the additional revenue in 2026.

WSTS expects memory sales to exceed $800 billion in 2026, accounting for more than 53% of the projected $1.51 trillion semiconductor market.

We can estimate how much that contributes to overall growth. If memory revenue reaches approximately $800 billion after increasing 250%, the previous year's revenue would have been around $229 billion. That gives us roughly $571 billion in additional memory sales.

Meanwhile, the total semiconductor market is forecast to increase from approximately $792 billion to $1.51 trillion, a gain of $718 billion. Memory alone would therefore explain approximately 80% of that increase.

This calculation uses rounded forecasts, but the conclusion is striking. A single semiconductor category is expected to generate roughly four dollars out of every five dollars of additional industry revenue.

Not all memory is used for AI. Smartphones, PCs and conventional servers also need DRAM and NAND. However, the rush to produce high-bandwidth memory for AI accelerators is tightening capacity across the broader memory industry and pushing prices higher.

Are semiconductor companies selling more chips or just raising prices?

Semiconductor companies are benefiting from both stronger demand and higher prices, but memory price increases account for an unusually large share of today's revenue growth.

Gartner forecast that DRAM and solid-state-drive prices could rise by a combined 130% during 2026. IDC also reported that DRAM and NAND costs facing smartphone manufacturers had increased by more than 300% year over year.

Those price changes help explain Micron's extraordinary revenue increase. Higher sales reflect a combination of manufacturing output, richer product mixes and higher average selling prices. They cannot be interpreted as an equivalent increase in the number of chips shipped. Separating price rises from extra chips shipped is part of building our own size estimate, with every assumption visible, in our market report about semiconductors.

TSMC offers an interesting contrast. Its latest quarterly revenue increased 41.2% in US dollars, while its advanced manufacturing technologies accounted for a growing share of business. The company is benefiting from demand for more sophisticated and valuable chips, rather than the same memory-pricing dynamics.

We should therefore distinguish three things when measuring semiconductor growth: the number of chips sold, their technical complexity and the price customers pay. The industry's revenue boom combines all three, and the balance varies considerably between memory manufacturers, chip designers and foundries.

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Are semiconductors growing outside the AI market?

Yes, demand for semiconductors outside AI is recovering too, although growth is far slower in automotive, industrial and other conventional chip categories.

WSTS expects microprocessor revenue to increase 20% in 2026, analog semiconductors 10%, discrete devices 8%, and sensors and optoelectronics approximately 3%.

Texas Instruments provides fresh evidence that the recovery is spreading. The company reported third-quarter revenue of $6.06 billion, up 28% year over year and 11% from the previous quarter. Management specifically identified industrial, automotive and data-center demand as areas of broad growth.

Analog and embedded chips are particularly useful indicators because they serve a huge range of products, including factory equipment, power systems, vehicles and electronic controls. Their growth shows that semiconductor demand extends beyond Nvidia's AI accelerators.

Still, the difference in growth rates is enormous. WSTS expects memory sales to increase approximately 25 times faster than analog semiconductor sales.

Semiconductor category 2026 forecast growth What it suggests
Memory Approximately +250% Extraordinary demand and pricing
Logic +37% Strong computing demand
Microprocessors +20% Solid processor market
Analog +10% Wider electronics recovery
Discrete semiconductors +8% Moderate growth
Sensors Approximately +3% Weak expansion
Optoelectronics Approximately +3% Weak expansion

Figures come from WSTS's spring 2026 forecast. Sensors and optoelectronics were reported together at approximately 3% growth.

Are Nvidia and TSMC taking most of the semiconductor industry's growth?

Nvidia and TSMC are capturing a huge share of the semiconductor boom, especially in advanced computing, although memory manufacturers are currently seeing even faster revenue increases.

Nvidia's 106% annual revenue growth is exceptional for a company of its size. Its data-center business accounts for approximately 92.5% of total quarterly revenue, making the company heavily dependent on AI-related infrastructure.

TSMC's customer mix has also changed substantially. High-performance computing represented 68% of third-quarter revenue, compared with 57% a year earlier. Smartphones fell from 30% to 21%.

Based on those percentages and TSMC's reported US-dollar growth, we calculate that its high-performance computing revenue increased approximately 69% year over year, while smartphone-related revenue was roughly flat.

TSMC's manufacturing technology is moving in the same direction. Its 2-nanometer process accounted for 8% of quarterly wafer revenue, compared with 3% in the preceding quarter. Across all technologies measuring 7 nanometers or smaller, the share reached 79%.

Nvidia benefits directly from AI computing demand, while TSMC earns revenue from manufacturing advanced chips for multiple customers. Both are growing quickly, but memory suppliers are experiencing the most extreme percentage gains. It's difficult to call just one company the winner when the economics are so different.

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Are semiconductor manufacturers building more factories to keep up?

Yes, semiconductor manufacturers are increasing their investment in production capacity, and the latest equipment orders suggest they expect strong demand to continue.

SEMI forecasts global semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales of $165.9 billion in 2026, up 23.2% year over year. The industry association expects that figure to reach $229.5 billion by 2028, representing approximately 38% additional growth.

ASML's latest results show how much manufacturers are spending. The Dutch lithography equipment supplier reported €11.7 billion in third-quarter sales, compared with €9.3 billion in the previous quarter. It sold 113 new lithography systems, up from 86.

Memory production is also receiving substantial investment. SEMI projects DRAM manufacturing equipment spending of $38.8 billion in 2026, rising to $56.9 billion by 2028.

These purchases give us a view beyond short-term chip prices. Manufacturers are committing billions of dollars to equipment that will be used for years. Such spending points to confidence in future demand, although it also creates a risk if new production capacity eventually exceeds what customers need. Overbuilt capacity is one risk that could slow the market, and we rate those risks by likelihood, including less obvious ones, in our report on semiconductors.

Are traditional semiconductor companies recovering too?

Yes, traditional semiconductor companies are recovering, but revenue growth hasn't translated into equally strong financial results everywhere.

Texas Instruments is one of the clearest examples. Its third-quarter net income reached $2.43 billion, compared with $1.36 billion a year earlier. That's approximately 78% profit growth against 28% revenue growth, showing that higher sales are already having a much larger effect on earnings.

Intel offers a more complicated case. Its second-quarter revenue increased 25% to $16.1 billion, but the company still reported a GAAP loss attributable to shareholders. Intel continues investing heavily in manufacturing and foundry operations, which puts pressure on its financial results.

Companies with established manufacturing operations and improving factory utilization can see profits recover very quickly. Others are still spending heavily to rebuild their competitive positions.

For investors and suppliers, the distinction matters. A recovering semiconductor market improves conditions for many businesses, but it doesn't automatically turn every struggling chipmaker into a profitable one.

Is the semiconductor boom happening worldwide?

Semiconductor sales are growing in every major region right now, but the Americas are recording much faster growth than Europe or Japan.

According to the SIA, August semiconductor sales increased 180.9% year over year in the Americas, compared with 143% in Asia-Pacific excluding China and Japan, 131.3% in China, 98.5% in Europe and 62.3% in Japan.

Every region also recorded positive monthly growth. The boom is clearly bigger than a single country's demand for chips.

However, these figures describe semiconductor sales by market, rather than where the chips are manufactured. North American customers accounted for 79% of TSMC's third-quarter revenue, even though Taiwan remains central to its advanced manufacturing operations.

There is a large difference between where semiconductor demand originates and where manufacturing capacity is located. The Americas currently lead sales growth, while Taiwan and South Korea remain critically important to the supply of advanced logic and memory.

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Why are smartphone and PC sales falling if the semiconductor market is booming?

Smartphone and PC sales are being hurt by the same memory shortage that is helping semiconductor manufacturers generate record revenue.

IDC's August 2026 forecast projected a 16.7% decline in global smartphone shipments, bringing annual sales to just over one billion devices. At the same time, average smartphone prices were expected to increase 27.6% to approximately $581.

IDC also forecast an 11.3% decline in global PC shipments during 2026, with particularly weak demand toward the end of the year.

The pressure is strongest for cheaper devices. IDC estimated that 173 million smartphones priced below $100 had shipped in 2025, a category now facing severe pressure from rising component costs. Manufacturers cannot easily absorb a large increase in memory prices when their products already have extremely narrow margins.

It's a strange market. Semiconductor suppliers are making substantially more money from memory, while some of their customers are selling fewer finished products. IDC even expects the total value of smartphone sales to rise 6.3% despite the sharp fall in shipments.

The semiconductor industry's growth therefore says much more about chip spending and pricing than it does about how many phones or computers consumers are buying.

Are semiconductor companies becoming more profitable?

Leading semiconductor companies are making exceptional profits right now, with TSMC and Nvidia reporting margins that would have been difficult to imagine for businesses of their size a few years ago.

TSMC reported a 51.1% net profit margin in its third quarter, with net income increasing 68.7% year over year. Revenue grew 41.2% in US dollars, meaning profits increased faster than sales.

Nvidia reported a 75% gross margin in its fiscal second quarter, supported by demand for its AI computing platforms. Micron's fiscal fourth-quarter net income reached $37.70 billion, helped by the extraordinary pricing environment for memory. Margins this high raise the question of which business models truly make money, and which keep them, a question we study in our semiconductor market report.

The numbers also show how differently semiconductor companies make money. Nvidia concentrates on designing and selling high-value computing systems. TSMC operates expensive manufacturing facilities that become more profitable as demand, utilization and product complexity increase. Micron is much more exposed to memory pricing cycles.

We shouldn't expect identical margins across the industry. But for its most successful companies, semiconductor growth is currently producing enormous cash generation alongside rising revenue.

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Could the semiconductor boom end with too many chips being produced?

Yes, the semiconductor industry could eventually face another oversupply cycle, particularly in memory, where high prices are encouraging manufacturers to invest heavily in new capacity.

This has happened before. After strong demand during the pandemic, the semiconductor market entered a downturn in 2023, with global revenue falling 8.2%. Inventory corrections and weaker electronics demand hit memory manufacturers particularly hard.

Today's investment commitments raise a similar long-term question. SEMI expects DRAM manufacturing equipment spending to increase from $38.8 billion in 2026 to $56.9 billion in 2028. NAND equipment spending is projected to rise from $13.9 billion to $20.8 billion over the same period.

New semiconductor factories and production lines take time to build and qualify. Capacity ordered during a period of strong prices may therefore enter production after market conditions have changed.

There is also a difference between advanced and conventional manufacturing. Extra capacity for older chips cannot easily replace leading-edge production or high-bandwidth memory. Shortages and excess capacity can exist at the same time in different parts of the industry.

For now, demand is still strong enough to support substantial expansion. The risk will grow if manufacturing capacity increases faster than actual chip consumption, particularly if memory prices begin falling before the new equipment is fully productive.

What happens to the semiconductor industry if AI spending slows down?

A major slowdown in AI spending would probably cause semiconductor growth to fall sharply, because so much of the industry's current expansion depends on data-center investment.

Nvidia demonstrates how concentrated that demand has become. Its data-center business generated more than nine-tenths of total revenue in its latest reported quarter. A reduction in AI infrastructure spending would therefore have a direct effect on one of the world's largest semiconductor suppliers.

The effect would spread across the supply chain. Fewer AI accelerator orders could reduce demand for high-bandwidth memory, advanced chip manufacturing and related equipment. Memory manufacturers would face an additional risk if weaker demand coincided with rising production capacity.

However, other semiconductor markets would continue operating. Industrial automation, automotive electronics, telecommunications and consumer devices all need chips, and those businesses follow different purchasing cycles.

As seen above, Texas Instruments' recent results already show improving demand beyond AI. That provides some protection, although conventional semiconductor categories are currently growing much too slowly to replace the extraordinary contribution from memory.

A slowdown in AI spending would be a serious problem for industry growth rates. Whether it produces an outright contraction would depend on the size of the slowdown and how quickly semiconductor prices adjust.

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Will the semiconductor industry keep growing in 2027 and beyond?

The semiconductor industry is expected to keep growing in 2027, but at a much slower rate than the extraordinary expansion projected for 2026.

WSTS forecasts another 27% increase in global semiconductor revenue in 2027, taking the market to approximately $1.9 trillion. Memory is expected to grow 32%, while logic should increase 27%.

Those rates are far above the industry's historical average, even though they represent a sharp slowdown from current growth. The forecast also implies that semiconductor demand will remain strong after the initial surge in prices and AI infrastructure investment. Whether growth stays above the historical average depends on what happens next, and we lay out those growth drivers in our market report about semiconductors.

Equipment manufacturers are preparing for further expansion. SEMI expects five consecutive years of growth in semiconductor equipment sales through 2028, driven by leading-edge logic, advanced memory, testing and packaging.

There are reasons for caution. WSTS projections are forecasts rather than completed sales, and the memory market is especially sensitive to changes in pricing. A rapid fall in memory prices could reduce global semiconductor revenue even if physical chip demand remained strong.

Still, the available evidence supports continued industry expansion. We have strong forecasts for both semiconductor sales and manufacturing investment, while the latest quarterly results show that several major suppliers are still growing quickly.

Is the semiconductor industry's current growth likely to last?

The semiconductor industry's growth should continue, but today's exceptional pace is unlikely to last for many consecutive years.

The biggest reason is the arithmetic behind the current boom. Memory revenue is projected to rise approximately 250% in 2026, creating an enormous increase in the industry's total revenue. Repeating that growth rate would require memory sales to multiply by another 3.5 times the following year.

WSTS instead expects memory growth to slow to 32% in 2027. That's still extremely strong by historical standards, but the fastest part of the expansion is expected to cool significantly.

There are also real constraints on how quickly AI infrastructure can keep growing. Data centers require electricity, cooling systems, networking equipment and new buildings. Even when companies want more computing power, physical infrastructure can limit how quickly they deploy it.

Meanwhile, semiconductor manufacturers are adding capacity. That should eventually help relieve shortages, but it could also weaken the unusually high prices currently supporting revenue growth.

We therefore expect a much larger semiconductor industry to emerge from this cycle, with growth becoming less spectacular as supply catches up and the market moves beyond its current memory shortage.

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Is the semiconductor industry growing now?

Yes, the semiconductor industry is booming today, with record sales, strong profits and enormous manufacturing investment. The evidence is overwhelming, although the industry's growth is much less evenly distributed than the headline figures suggest.

Global semiconductor revenue has more than doubled year over year in the latest SIA data, and annual sales are expected to exceed $1.5 trillion. That would make the industry nearly three times larger than it was in 2023.

Our analysis points to two important findings. First, the expansion reaches beyond AI, as shown by the recovery in analog, industrial and automotive semiconductors. Second, most of the additional revenue still comes from memory and advanced computing, where demand and pricing have reached unusual levels.

The biggest risk is a combination of slower AI spending, falling memory prices and manufacturing capacity arriving faster than customers need it. Those risks could significantly reduce growth without reversing all the progress made since the previous downturn.

For now, semiconductor demand remains strong, manufacturers are investing heavily and forecasts point to further expansion. The industry is clearly growing, and growing exceptionally fast. The harder question is how much of today's revenue boom will survive once memory prices and AI infrastructure spending return to more normal growth rates.

Our methodology

This analysis examines whether the semiconductor industry is growing, what is driving that growth and how sustainable the current expansion may be. We evaluated historical sales, current market data, semiconductor categories, major company results, geographic trends, manufacturing investment and forecasts for future demand.

We used global semiconductor sales data from the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) and World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) as the foundation of our analysis. Historical revenue figures establish the industry's longer-term growth pattern, while the latest monthly figures and market forecasts help measure the scale of the current expansion.

We distinguish reported sales from projections throughout the analysis. The annual market figures for 2026 and 2027 remain forecasts, and the WSTS spring outlook is kept separate from more recent industry estimates. Monthly SIA sales figures are based on a three-month moving average, rather than individual calendar-month shipments.

To assess how growth is distributed, we compared WSTS forecasts across memory, logic, microprocessors, analog, discrete semiconductors, sensors and optoelectronics. We also estimated memory's contribution to total industry revenue growth using published market projections and rounded calculations. These estimates describe changes in revenue, not physical chip shipments or the portion of all memory consumed directly by AI.

We examined original financial releases from Nvidia, TSMC, Micron, Texas Instruments, Intel and ASML to compare revenue growth, profitability, product mix and manufacturing activity. These companies represent different parts of the semiconductor value chain, allowing us to examine whether the wider market expansion is reflected in chip design, manufacturing, memory production and equipment sales.

We evaluated pricing separately from production volumes. Research from Gartner and IDC helped assess how memory shortages and higher semiconductor prices are affecting smartphones, PCs and consumer-electronics manufacturers. We also used SEMI's manufacturing equipment forecasts to assess planned production investment and the longer-term risk of excess supply.

Regional sales figures were interpreted as semiconductor sales by market, rather than the physical location of manufacturing facilities. Company-specific financial results were also assessed within their own reporting periods and business definitions, rather than treated as directly comparable measures of industry market share.

Our final assessment combines current sales, segment-level growth, company operating results and planned manufacturing investment. We give greater weight to completed financial results for describing today's market, while using industry projections to evaluate possible developments in 2027 and beyond. Forecasts are treated as scenarios subject to changes in AI spending, semiconductor pricing, production capacity and demand.

Key sources used for this analysis include: SIA's August 2026 semiconductor sales report, SIA's second-quarter 2026 market update, WSTS semiconductor market forecasts and updates, SIA's historical market data, Nvidia's fiscal second-quarter 2027 results, TSMC's third-quarter 2026 results, Micron's fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 results, Texas Instruments' third-quarter 2026 financial results, Intel's financial results, ASML's third-quarter 2026 results, SEMI's semiconductor equipment sales forecast, Gartner's research on memory prices and device shipments, Gartner's updated semiconductor revenue forecast, and IDC's 2026 smartphone market outlook.

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