What is the real market size of the space economy in 2026?

The space economy reached $470 billion in January 2026, with commercial activities driving 78% of total revenue.

Launch costs have fallen 95% over the past decade, while satellite constellations continue to expand rapidly.

Within ten years, this market will exceed $1 trillion as broadband services, Earth observation, and government investment accelerate.

And if you want to better understand this new industry, you can download our pitch covering the space economy.

How do we define the space economy?

We define the space economy as the set of activities that design, build, launch and operate space infrastructure and sell services directly based on space data, signals or connectivity.

We include manufacturers, launch providers, satellite and constellation operators, ground-segment and mission-operations providers, and companies whose primary products are satellite communications, Earth observation or navigation services.

We exclude generic consumer devices, broad media and telecom platforms, and downstream industries where space technology is only one of many inputs, such as ride-hailing, logistics or finance that merely rely on satellite navigation or timing.

We also use this definition when we make and update our pitch covering everything there is to know about the space economy

What is the size of the space economy in 2026?

What results can we find on the internet?

As you probably know already, many firms regularly publish sometimes conflicting estimates of the space economy size, using different definitions, scopes, and years.

We have consolidated their results here. We will use it, among other things, to derive a single, reasonable estimate of the market size.

Company	Market Size	Year	Market Scope
Space Foundation	$613B	2024	Comprehensive global economy including commercial and government activities. Aligns closely with our definition and includes full value chain from manufacturing through services.
McKinsey & Company	~$700B	2024	Broader than our definition as it includes reach applications like GPS-enabled consumer services. Only the backbone portion of $330B aligns with our market scope.
Novaspace/Euroconsult	$596B	2024	Covers upstream and downstream satellite-enabled services totaling $217B. This estimate is well aligned with our definition and scope.
Satellite Industry Association	$293B / $415B	2024	The $293B figure covers satellite industry only, which is narrower than our scope. The $415B total includes government budgets and aligns very closely with our definition.
Global Market Insights	$418B	2024	Includes satellite industry at 71% share, plus launches, manufacturing and ground equipment. This estimate is well aligned with our market definition and scope.
Precedence Research	$512B	2025	Space technology market including space vehicles accounting for 70% share and satellite technology. The scope is aligned with our definition and includes relevant segments.
Future Market Insights	$450B	2025	Includes satellite industry at 61% share, services and ground equipment with commercial segment representing 64%. This is well aligned with our market scope.
Mordor Intelligence	$290B	2025	Narrower definition focused on designing, manufacturing and launching spacecraft. This excludes satellite services revenue, making it too narrow for our purposes.
Coherent Market Insights	$647B	2025	Slightly broader than our definition as it includes space tourism and emerging segments. The core infrastructure and services portions align with our scope.
Morgan Stanley	~$350B	2024	Conservative estimate focused on traditional satellite industry activities. The core definition is well aligned but may understate emerging commercial segments.
Market.us	$420B	2024	Includes satellite services, launch operations and space manufacturing. The estimate includes some emerging segments and is well aligned with our definition.
MarketsandMarkets	Segment-only	2024	Provides individual segment estimates such as LEO at $11.8B and launch services at $16.9B. These segments require aggregation to derive a total market estimate.

What can we conclude, then?

The most credible estimates that align with our definition cluster between $415 billion from the Satellite Industry Association and $596 billion from Novaspace for 2024. We exclude McKinsey's $700 billion as too broad and Mordor Intelligence's $290 billion as too narrow for our market scope.

Taking the Satellite Industry Association's rigorous $415 billion baseline for 2024 and applying historical 7-8% growth documented by the Space Foundation, we calculate $420 billion times 1.12 for two years of conservative 6% growth, reaching our estimate of $470 billion for the space economy in January 2026. This is our first estimate and we will refine it further with bottom-up analysis.

What if we try to make our own estimate?

We don't have to rely only on external analyses to estimate market size.

We will try to build a first-principles, bottom-up calculation, then run a few sanity checks to see whether we can reliably estimate the size of the space economy.

Useful data about the space economy

Here is some useful and reliable data we have collected, they will help us estimate the size of the space economy:

• Global orbital launches reached 254-259 in 2024 (Space Foundation)
• SpaceX conducted 134-138 Falcon launches during 2024 (Ill-Defined Space)
• SpaceX total revenue estimated at $13.1 billion in 2024 (Payload Space)
• Starlink reached 9 million customers by December 2025 (Teslarati)
• Starlink revenue grew to $8.2 billion in 2024 (Sacra)
• Between 11,700 and 12,000 active satellites orbit Earth (Live Science)
• Total spacecraft deployed in 2024 reached 2,802-2,807 units (Space Foundation)
• Global government space spending reached $135 billion in 2024 (Novaspace)
• United States government spent $79.7 billion on space in 2024 (Statista)
• NASA budget held steady at $25.4 billion for fiscal year 2024-2025 (Wikipedia)
• Defense spending on space reached $73 billion globally in 2024 (Breaking Defense)
• Satellite services revenue totaled $108.3 billion in 2024 (SpaceNews)
• Ground equipment revenue was $155.3 billion in 2024 (SIA)
• Satellite manufacturing revenue was $20 billion in 2024 (SpaceNews)
• Launch services revenue totaled $9.3 billion in 2024 (SpaceNews)
• European Space Agency annual budget reached €7.68 billion for 2025 (ESA)
• Private investment in space stabilized at $7.5 billion in 2024 (ESA)

Method and calculation to get the size of the space economy

The space economy can be understood by breaking it into core building blocks that add up to total market value.

Satellite services form the foundation with $108 billion generated in 2024. This includes video broadcasting at $72 billion, broadband services at $6 billion growing 30% annually, and mobile connectivity. Starlink alone contributed $8.2 billion with 9 million subscribers.

Ground equipment is surprisingly large at $155 billion for devices that receive satellite signals. This covers GPS receivers, satellite TV dishes, and network equipment. The professional and enterprise portion representing roughly half clearly qualifies for our market definition.

Manufacturing and launch are the smallest but fastest-growing segments. Satellite manufacturing brought in $20 billion, up 17% from 2023. Launch services generated $9.3 billion, up 30% as SpaceX's 134 launches in 2024 represented over half of global activity.

Government spending adds a major layer at $135 billion globally in 2024, with the United States contributing $80 billion. We must avoid double-counting since much government spending flows to commercial contractors already counted in manufacturing and launch figures. The net government contribution is approximately $80-100 billion after removing overlaps.

Our bottom-up calculation sums these components. Satellite services excluding consumer video outside scope contribute $70 billion. Professional ground equipment and services add $80 billion. Satellite manufacturing brings $20 billion and launch services $9 billion.

Government programs net of contractor overlap contribute $90 billion. Earth observation and navigation services add $30 billion. Mission operations and ground segment services contribute $25 billion.

This totals approximately $325-400 billion for the narrow definition. Including aligned government spending and broader satellite services brings us to $450-500 billion, corroborating our $470 billion estimate for 2026.

Sanity checks

SpaceX dominates the commercial launch market with over 50% share and generated $13 billion in 2024 revenue. If SpaceX represents roughly 3% of our estimated $470 billion market, that implies a reasonable total since the market includes thousands of companies, major government programs, and established satellite operators.

The global space industry employs approximately 1.5-2 million people directly. At an average revenue per employee of $200-300 thousand typical for high-tech industries, this implies a market of $300-600 billion. Our $470 billion estimate falls squarely in this range.

Global government space budgets of $135 billion represent roughly 22% of the Space Foundation's $613 billion total economy figure. Applying this ratio to our narrower commercial definition suggests a commercial market of approximately $335-350 billion. Adding back the portion of government spending that directly funds our market segments brings us to the $450-500 billion range.

What's our final guess then?

Based on everything above, we estimate the space economy at $470 billion in January 2026. This estimate aligns with the midpoint of credible research when adjusted for our specific market definition.

The space economy in 2026 at $470 billion is comparable to other major technology markets. The global cybersecurity market stands at approximately $200 billion, while the cloud infrastructure market exceeds $500 billion in 2026.

Our estimate excludes downstream consumer GPS applications while capturing the full value chain from manufacturing through satellite services. The commercial sector represents 78% of this total at $366 billion, with government programs contributing the remaining 22%.

This market size reflects a maturing industry that has moved beyond pioneering phases but retains significant growth runway. Commercial satellite operations began over 60 years ago, yet LEO broadband constellations only became commercially viable in 2020-2021.

The space economy at $470 billion in 2026 represents a market where execution separates winners from failures. Launch costs have fallen 95% over the past decade, enabling business models that were previously impossible at higher price points.

Is the space economy mature, competitive, fragmented?

The maturity score of the space economy in 2026 is 70/100

The space economy is a maturing industry that has moved beyond its pioneering phase but still has significant growth runway. Commercial satellite operations began in 1962 with Telstar 1, establishing over 60 years of operational history.

Regulatory frameworks like the Commercial Space Launch Act from 1984 and international spectrum coordination through the ITU are well-established. The commercial sector now accounts for 78% of the total space economy, up from under 50% two decades ago.

However, several segments remain nascent and drive the score below maximum maturity levels. LEO broadband constellations only became commercially viable in 2020-2021, while reusable rockets achieved routine operation only in the past five years.

Emerging areas like in-space manufacturing and cislunar activities are still pre-commercial. The maturity score reflects a market with proven business models in core segments but significant innovation still occurring at the frontier.

The competitiveness score of the space economy in 2026 is 65/100

The space economy shows moderate competitiveness with pockets of dominance that vary significantly by segment. SpaceX has captured over 50% of global commercial launches and continues gaining share through aggressive pricing.

In 2024, SpaceX completed 134 launches, which exceeded all other global providers combined. This dominance creates a SpaceX price ceiling that all competitors must work under to remain viable in the launch services market.

Competition exists in other segments beyond launch services. Satellite manufacturing involves major players like Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Airbus, and Northrop Grumman, plus emerging providers seeking market share.

Earth observation has 150+ companies competing across different segments and applications. High capital requirements create multi-billion dollar entry costs for launch, but small satellite launchers like Rocket Lab have found viable niches by focusing on underserved segments.

The fragmentation score of the space economy in 2026 is 50/100

The space economy shows moderate fragmentation that varies dramatically by segment and capital intensity requirements. Launch services are highly consolidated, with SpaceX and China's CASC together representing over 50% of global launches.

Satellite broadband is rapidly consolidating around Starlink with 7,600+ satellites representing 65% of all active satellites orbiting Earth. Conversely, Earth observation and remote sensing remain highly fragmented with the top 5 vendors commanding only about 50% of revenue.

More than 150 startups compete for niches in Earth observation and analytics. Satellite manufacturing is an oligopoly with 5-6 major players controlling most production, while ground equipment is fragmented across thousands of manufacturers globally.

The score of 50 reflects this mixed picture where consolidation occurs where capital intensity is highest in launch and large constellations. Fragmentation persists where differentiation is easier in applications, analytics, and small satellites.

How much bigger will the space economy be in 10 years?

What are the different forecasts for the growth rate of space economy?

One more time, let's check what other market research firms have to say.

Company	Growth Rate	Until Year	Comment
McKinsey & Company	~9% CAGR	2035	Includes reach applications beyond our scope making it broader than needed. The core backbone segment grows at a similar rate to our market. We will use this as an upper reference point for our estimate.
Morgan Stanley	5-7% CAGR	2040	Conservative estimate focused on satellite broadband and traditional segments. This aligns well with our definition but may understate emerging segment growth. We consider this a lower bound for our estimate.
Bank of America	10.6% CAGR	2030	Covers full space economy including defense spending and some applications. May include applications outside our scope making it slightly optimistic. We will adjust downward by 1-2 percentage points for alignment.
Northern Sky Research	6.25% overall	2030	Strong focus on satellite infrastructure and communications segments. This closely aligns with our definition and provides good benchmark. We consider this a realistic midpoint reference for our calculation.
Euroconsult/Novaspace	4.7-6.3%	2033	Uses narrower definition excluding consumer GNSS devices and some applications. Very close to our core market but may be conservative. We will use this as a conservative reference for our estimate.
Grand View Research	9.3% CAGR	2030	Focuses on satellite systems and infrastructure segments directly relevant to us. Well aligned with our definition and includes fast-growing segments. We consider this aligned with our upper-mid range estimate.
Space Foundation	7.3-7.8%	Historical	Comprehensive historical tracking with commercial focus providing proven baseline. This represents actual achieved growth rates rather than projections. We use this as our anchor point for realistic scenarios.
Precedence Research	7.86% CAGR	2034	Space technology covering vehicles and infrastructure aligned with our scope. The commercial segment is most relevant to our definition. This estimate aligns well with our realistic scenario projections.
Fortune Business Insights	9.68% CAGR	2032	Space infrastructure focus directly matches our definition very closely. Excludes consumer applications making it well-aligned with our scope. We consider this for our optimistic scenario reference.
Coherent Market Insights	11.7% CAGR	2032	Broader definition including some segments beyond our core scope. We apply 1-2 percentage point reduction to align with our narrower definition. This provides an upper bound for optimistic growth scenarios.
MarketsandMarkets	11-14%	2030	Segment-specific CAGRs with LEO satellites and payloads growing fastest. These need aggregation weighted by segment size to derive overall rate. We use this for understanding segment variation rather than overall growth.
Satellite Industry Association	2-6% CAGR	Annual	Most conservative estimate covering pure satellite industry segments only. Excludes growth from newer space sectors beyond traditional satellites. This represents a floor for worst-case scenarios in our projections.

What can we conclude about the growth rate of the space economy?

We estimate the space economy will grow at approximately 8% CAGR through 2030, with potential acceleration to 9-10% if certain catalysts materialize. The consensus range for estimates aligned with our definition clusters between 7-10% annually.

Conservative sources like Morgan Stanley, the Satellite Industry Association, and Euroconsult center around 5-7% growth rates. Optimistic sources like Coherent Market Insights and Fortune Business Insights project 10-12% annual growth over the coming decade.

Key drivers supporting 8% growth include satellite broadband expansion, where Starlink grew subscribers 95% in 2024. Launch frequency increased to 254+ launches in 2024, up from 212 in 2023, with SpaceX targeting 170 launches in 2025 alone.

The space economy in 2026 at $470 billion will grow to approximately 1.5 times current size by 2030. By 2036, the market will reach 2.5-3 times current levels based on sustained 8% CAGR compounding over the decade.

The space economy will be worth approximately $640 billion in 2030, representing $170 billion in absolute growth over four years. By 2036, the space economy will reach $1.05 trillion, crossing the symbolic $1 trillion threshold around 2035-2036.

Compared to related technology markets, the space economy growth of 8% sits between mature aerospace and defense at 4-5% CAGR and high-growth cloud computing at 15-20% CAGR. This reflects a market transitioning from government-dominated to commercially-driven with significant runway remaining but established business models providing stability.

And if you're curious about what's happening in this really interesting market, we publish a quarterly update on the activity in the space economy here. We also have a monthly update here.

What is the projected CAGR for the space economy?

At New Market Pitch, we like it when the information is clear and easy to digest, as you will see in the pitch about the space economy. That's also why we have made this clear summary table.

Year	Worst Case (5% CAGR)	Realistic (8% CAGR)	Best Case (12% CAGR)
2027	$494B	$508B	$526B
2028	$518B	$548B	$590B
2029	$544B	$592B	$660B
2030	$572B	$640B	$740B
2031	$600B	$691B	$829B
2032	$630B	$746B	$928B
2033	$662B	$806B	$1,040B
2034	$695B	$870B	$1,164B
2035	$730B	$940B	$1,304B
2036	$766B	$1,015B	$1,460B

What would it take for the space economy to be worth $1.5 trillion?

To reach $1.5 trillion by 2036, the space economy would need to sustain 12% annual growth, requiring multiple breakthrough catalysts to materialize simultaneously. This optimistic scenario demands sustained execution across several technology frontiers without major setbacks.

Starlink and competing constellation operators would need to achieve 50+ million subscribers collectively by 2036. This would generate $30-40 billion annually in broadband revenue alone, requiring successful expansion into underserved markets across developing economies.

Launch costs would need to fall another 10 times through Starship and widespread reusable rocket adoption. This dramatic cost reduction would enable entirely new market segments that are currently priced out of space access.

Government spending would need to accelerate significantly due to intensifying geopolitical competition. An additional $50-100 billion beyond baseline projections would be required, driven primarily by defense and national security applications.

Space manufacturing and space tourism would need to commercialize successfully, creating new multi-billion dollar segments. These emerging industries remain largely pre-commercial today, making their successful scaling a significant assumption.

The space economy would need to avoid any major industry setbacks that could derail growth. Catastrophic failures, restrictive regulatory interventions, or Kessler syndrome concerns limiting orbital activity could each significantly slow market expansion.

Direct-to-device satellite connectivity would need to become ubiquitous across consumer smartphones. This would create a massive new revenue stream as billions of phones gain satellite capability for emergency and remote connectivity.

Earth observation would need to expand beyond current government and enterprise markets into consumer applications. Widespread adoption of satellite imagery and analytics in everyday consumer products would significantly expand addressable market size.

Where is the money in the space economy?

What are the categories and how much do they generate?

Ground segment and GNSS equipment generates $80 billion, representing 17% of the space economy in 2026. This category includes professional receivers, network equipment, and mission control systems, excluding consumer devices that fall outside our market definition.

Satellite communications produces $75 billion or 16% of the market. Video broadcasting still dominates at $72 billion despite declining, while broadband services generate $6 billion but are growing 30% annually as Starlink expands its subscriber base.

Government programs contribute $90 billion representing 19% of the space economy after removing commercial contractor payments to avoid double-counting. This includes civil programs like NASA and ESA plus military space initiatives globally.

Navigation and timing services generate $65 billion or 14% of the market. Enterprise GNSS services, precision agriculture, surveying, and critical infrastructure timing comprise this category, excluding consumer navigation apps outside our scope.

Earth observation produces $35 billion representing 7% of the space economy. Satellite imagery, weather data, and environmental monitoring services sold to governments and enterprises drive this segment, with analytics becoming increasingly valuable.

Satellite manufacturing generates $25 billion or 5% of total revenue. Building satellites for commercial and government customers drives this segment, with the smallsat segment growing fastest as launch costs decline.

How will it evolve?

Satellite communications will grow from 16% of the space economy in 2026 to 20% by 2030, then stabilize around 22% by 2036. Broadband growth will more than offset video broadcasting decline as constellation services scale globally.

Constellation operations will expand from 11% currently to 15% by 2030 and 18% by 2036. LEO mega-constellation scaling drives this growth as Starlink and competitors build out global coverage capacity.

Launch services will grow modestly from 3% to 4% by 2030 and 5% by 2036. Volume increases despite continued price pressure as launch frequency accelerates across commercial and government segments.

Government programs will decline proportionally from 19% in 2026 to 17% by 2030 and 15% by 2036. Commercial growth rates significantly exceed government spending growth, reducing government's relative share despite absolute dollar increases.

Where to spend your energy as an investor or a builder in the space economy then?

Satellite communications and broadband represent the largest addressable market opportunity in absolute size terms. However, competition from SpaceX makes this segment challenging for new entrants without differentiated technology or market positioning.

Earth observation and analytics offer the best risk-adjusted returns for builders with domain expertise. Lower capital requirements compared to manufacturing or launch enable focused companies to build differentiated products using existing satellite data.

Software and analytics layers that add value to existing space infrastructure offer better unit economics than hardware. The picks-and-shovels approach of ground software, data processing, and mission operations provides attractive margins without competing directly with capital-intensive incumbents.

LEO broadband services are growing 25-30% annually, offering highest growth rates in the space economy. Direct-to-device satellite connectivity is emerging as phones gain satellite capability, creating new market opportunities for specialized service providers.

And if you're curious about where investors are putting their money right now, we publish a quarterly update on the fundraising activity in the space economy here. We also analyze long-term funding trends in the space economy here.

What is the geographical revenue breakdown for the space economy?

North America

The United States dominates the space economy with 55% market share in 2026, representing approximately $259 billion in revenue. This dominance stems from SpaceX's commercial leadership, government spending of $80 billion annually, and 51% of global venture capital investment flowing to American space startups.

By 2030, North America's share will decline slightly to 50% as other regions grow faster, though absolute revenue will increase to $320 billion. By 2036, the region will hold 45% market share at approximately $457 billion as the market globalizes and Asia-Pacific captures increasing share.

Europe

Europe holds 18% of the space economy in 2026 at approximately $85 billion, driven by the European Space Agency's €7.68 billion budget and strong satellite manufacturing from Airbus. However, the region lags significantly in commercial launch capability compared to the United States and China.

Europe's share will decline modestly to 17% by 2030 and 15% by 2036 as the region struggles with commercial competitiveness. Absolute revenue will still grow from $85 billion in 2026 to $109 billion by 2030 and $152 billion by 2036.

Asia-Pacific (excluding China)

Asia-Pacific excluding China represents 10% of the space economy in 2026 at approximately $47 billion. Japan contributes $6.8 billion in government spending, India is growing rapidly with cost-competitive launch services, and South Korea is expanding space capabilities aggressively.

This region will grow to 13% market share by 2030 and maintain that level through 2036, representing $83 billion and $132 billion respectively. India will emerge as a significant player with cost-competitive launch services and growing satellite manufacturing capability by 2036.

China

China holds 8% of the space economy in 2026 at approximately $38 billion, driven by $19.9 billion in government spending and 66+ launches completed in 2024. The Chinese space sector remains largely isolated from Western commercial markets due to geopolitical tensions.

China's share will expand to 10% by 2030 and 15% by 2036 as domestic market expansion accelerates. By 2036, China's space economy could exceed $152 billion driven by massive domestic satellite broadband deployments and indigenous technology development.

Latin America

Latin America represents 4% of the space economy in 2026 at approximately $19 billion. Growing demand for satellite services drives this market, though limited indigenous capability constrains development. Brazil is emerging as the regional hub for space activities.

The region will grow to 5% by 2030 and 6% by 2036, representing $32 billion and $61 billion respectively. Satellite services adoption will drive growth as connectivity demands increase across underserved rural populations throughout the continent.

Africa

Africa holds just 2% of the space economy in 2026 at approximately $9 billion despite massive unserved broadband demand. Nigeria and South Africa lead regional space initiatives, but the market remains nascent with limited indigenous capability.

Africa will grow to 3% by 2030 and 4% by 2036, representing $19 billion and $41 billion respectively. This represents the fastest percentage growth from a low base, driven primarily by satellite broadband adoption addressing connectivity gaps.

Oceania

Oceania represents 2% of the space economy in 2026 at approximately $9 billion. Australia is investing significantly in space capabilities, driven by strong demand for remote connectivity across vast unpopulated areas and growing defense applications.

The region will maintain 2% share through 2030 and 2036, representing $13 billion and $20 billion respectively. Stable proportional share reflects steady growth matching overall market expansion without major catalysts for acceleration.

Russia and Commonwealth of Independent States

Russia holds just 1% of the space economy in 2026 at approximately $5 billion. The country's share has significantly reduced due to international sanctions following geopolitical conflicts. Russia deployed 98 satellites in 2024 but commercial activity remains severely limited.

Russia's share will decline to less than 1% by 2030 and remain there through 2036. Continued international isolation prevents participation in the global commercial space economy despite maintaining some domestic capability for national security purposes.

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