Get a reality check on the carbon credit market

Carbon credits are moving into government rules, while the voluntary market is still trying to win back buyers' trust.

We've found a lot of interesting signals. For example, in February 2026, the UN approved the first credits ever issued under the Paris Agreement's own crediting mechanism, for a cookstove project in Myanmar. In March, EU governments adopted the bloc's 2040 climate target, which lets the EU count international credits worth up to 5% of its 1990 emissions, starting in 2036. And in April, Japan's emissions trading system became mandatory for its biggest emitters, who can cover up to 10% of their obligations with credits. Governments are starting to create steady demand, but only for credits that meet their own rules.

In this section, we look at why government buyers matter more and more, which credits qualify for these new systems, and what that means for developers who still sell mostly to companies.

Buyers want credits they can defend in public. Developers need prices that pay for projects that take years to build. Both sides are struggling.

We compare six kinds of carbon credit companies, from project developers and verification tools to registries, rating agencies, exchanges and brokers. Their buyers range from airlines and oil companies to tech firms and governments. Then we rank what hurts most, like doubts about whether a project really cut emissions, slow verification, and prices that swing from one year to the next.

This shows which problems buyers will pay to solve, and which ones they simply avoid by not buying at all.

Credit sales, forward contracts that pay before delivery, registry fees on every issuance, ratings sold by subscription and commissions on trades: carbon credit companies get paid in several ways.

We compare who pays and what it costs. A developer spends years and most of its money before the first credit is issued, and often shares revenue with local communities. A registry or rating agency earns smaller fees, but on every credit that passes through it. A broker or exchange lives on volume, so it suffers as soon as buyers pull back. And everyone pays for audits.

You'll see which models still work when credit prices fall, and which ones depend on a few large buyers signing every year.

A growth forecast needs reasons behind it. We list them one at a time.

Some drivers are easy to see: corporate climate targets, airlines that must offset part of their emissions under CORSIA, and governments building their own carbon markets. Others build on each other. Each new compliance system that accepts credits gives developers a buyer they can plan around. Clearer quality labels let companies buy without fearing the next headline. And as more credits trade on exchanges, prices become easier to see, which helps banks finance new projects.

Before building or investing, you should know what would make companies buy credits again with confidence, and which government rules could turn occasional buyers into regular ones.

Verra and Gold Standard run the registries behind most voluntary credits, but they're only one part of the market.

Many of the most interesting companies are ones most buyers never hear about. Some hand out efficient stoves or water filters in Africa and Asia. Others watch forests by satellite, audit projects for registries, insure buyers against credits that turn out to be worthless, or help countries set up their own carbon markets.

They're hard to compare because a credit from a cookstove project and a credit from a protected forest carry different risks, prices and buyers. Many developers also sell through brokers or traders, so the final buyer rarely knows who built the project.

Below, you'll find the market grids and ecosystem maps we've built to show who creates, checks, sells and buys credits, and where new players are getting in.

Xpansiv, Sylvera, Climate Impact Partners… a few carbon credit companies have built real businesses, each at a different point in the chain.

Xpansiv runs CBL, one of the main exchanges where carbon credits trade. Sylvera sells ratings that help buyers judge whether a credit holds up. Climate Impact Partners has sourced credits for large companies for many years. Each found a role buyers rely on, but none is protected from a drop in demand.

We'll look at how these companies chose their place in the chain, earned buyers' trust, and kept going while credit prices moved up and down.