How's the prediction market doing? Get the full picture here

Prediction markets are booming, and the fight over who gets to regulate them is now in the courts.

We've found a lot of interesting signals. For example, in October 2025, Intercontinental Exchange, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, agreed to invest up to $2B in Polymarket. And in August 2026, a federal appeals court refused to stop Nevada from treating Kalshi's sports contracts as gambling, while another appeals court had blocked New Jersey from doing the same in April. New Jersey has since asked the Supreme Court to take up the question. Wall Street is buying in, while judges are still deciding what these contracts are.

In this section, we look at why so much money is flowing into event contracts, which kinds of contracts drive the volume, and what the legal fight could change for newer platforms.

Traders want a fair price on things they care about, from a rate cut to a playoff game. Platforms need enough buyers and sellers on each question to keep that price honest.

We compare six kinds of prediction market companies, from general event exchanges to political, economic, sports and crypto markets. Their users range from casual fans to professional traders and companies hedging a real risk. For each, we rank the biggest pains, like markets too thin to trade, disputes over how a question was settled, and apps that are blocked in some states.

This shows which needs keep traders coming back, and which ones only show up around big elections and finals.

Trading fees, spreads earned by market makers, payments from brokers that route orders, data licensing and interest on customer cash: prediction market companies make money in many ways.

We compare who pays and what each trade costs. An exchange earns a fee on volume, but pays for market makers, lawyers and compliance in every state. A broker that offers event contracts already has the customers, so it can earn well without running the exchange. Sports contracts bring the most volume, but they are also the most exposed to state bans.

You'll see which models keep their margins as fees fall, and which ones depend on a court ruling going their way.

A growth rate means little here unless you know what keeps people trading between the big events.

Some drivers are plain to see: more contracts on sports, the economy and culture, brokers and trading apps adding event contracts, and big financial firms putting money in. Others feed each other. More traders bring tighter prices, which pull in more traders. Media and data partners show the odds to people who have never traded. And every new type of contract gives existing users another reason to come back.

Before building or investing, you should know what keeps traders active between elections, and what the legal outcome could mean for each business model.

Kalshi and Polymarket get most of the headlines, but they're only part of the prediction market industry.

A lot of the interesting work happens away from the big apps. Some only list contracts on economic data like inflation or jobs numbers. Others make markets on thousands of questions, settle disputed results, or sell the odds as data to newsrooms and trading desks.

They're hard to spot because many work behind someone else's app. A trader may place an order through a broker, on an exchange run by another firm, at a price set by a market maker nobody has heard of.

Below, you'll find the market grids and ecosystem maps we've built to show who runs each part of a trade, and where new players are getting in.

Robinhood, Interactive Brokers' ForecastEx, Crypto.com… a few companies already make real money from event contracts, and all three came from trading or crypto, not from prediction markets.

Robinhood earned $156M from event contracts in the second quarter of 2026, more than ten times a year earlier, and opened its own exchange, Rothera, with Susquehanna. ForecastEx, the exchange Interactive Brokers built, is strongest in economic contracts like inflation and Fed decisions. Crypto.com runs its own CFTC-regulated exchange in the US and offers sports contracts to its crypto users. Each brought customers it already had, though their sports business still depends on how the courts rule.

We'll look at how these companies put the customers they already had to work, chose which contracts to list first, and built a legal setup meant to survive the fight with the states.