Get a reality check on the sustainable aviation fuel market

Sustainable aviation fuel now has buyers by law. The problem is supply: most of it still comes from waste oils, and plants for newer fuels are slow to get built.

We've found a lot of interesting signals. For example, in November 2025, LanzaJet's plant in Georgia became the first commercial facility to turn ethanol into jet fuel. In April 2026, SAS warned that no plant in Europe making e-SAF, the synthetic fuel ReFuelEU requires from 2030, had yet reached a final investment decision. And in September 2026, EASA reported that sustainable fuel made up 2.8% of the jet fuel supplied at EU airports in 2025, above the 2% the law required. The mandates are creating real demand. Building plants for the fuels that come next is the hard part.

In this section, we look at why demand is now set by law, which production routes can grow beyond waste oils, and what the gap between mandates and plants means for producers and airlines.

Airlines need fuel that cuts emissions, works in today's engines and doesn't wreck their margins. Producers need feedstock, money and buyers who sign for ten years.

We compare six types of companies, from waste-oil refiners and ethanol-to-jet plants to e-fuel developers and technology licensors. Their customers include airlines, cargo carriers, fuel suppliers and companies paying to cut their business travel emissions. Then we rank what hurts most, like the price gap with fossil jet fuel, the race for used cooking oil, and plants that cost billions before the first drop.

This shows which problems buyers will pay to fix today, and which ones only get solved with public money.

Fuel sales to airlines, long purchase contracts, tax credits and certificates, technology licenses and selling the emissions cut separately from the fuel itself: SAF companies earn money in several ways.

We compare who pays and where each type of producer makes its margin. A waste-oil refiner's margin moves with feedstock prices and credits. An e-fuel plant pays mostly for electricity and equipment, so it needs long contracts before a bank will lend. Licensors earn fees without building plants. And corporate buyers can pay for the emissions cut through certificates, while the fuel itself goes into any plane at the airport.

You'll see which models still make money when credits change, and which only work if policy stays exactly as it is.

Mandates explain part of SAF's growth, not all of it. We take each driver separately.

Some are easy to see: blending rules in Europe and the UK, airline climate targets, and corporate customers who want to cut travel emissions. Others reinforce each other. Each new plant lowers the cost of the next one built on the same process. Long contracts from airlines help producers borrow. And as rules get clearer, fuel suppliers bring SAF to more airports.

Before building or investing, you should know what it takes for a new SAF plant to lock in feedstock, financing and buyers for years.

Neste and Twelve come up first when people talk about SAF, but they cover only a part of the market.

Many interesting players stay out of the headlines. Some collect used cooking oil and animal fats across Asia. Others design catalysts and reactors, license their process to refiners, or track SAF certificates so a company can claim the emissions cut.

They're tricky to size up because announced capacity and real output are rarely the same. Many projects stay on paper for years, and the fuel often passes through traders and blenders before it reaches a plane.

In this section, we share the market grids and ecosystem maps we've built to show who makes which fuel, who supplies and buys it, and where new players are getting in.

Montana Renewables, EcoCeres, SkyNRG… a few SAF companies already deliver real volumes to airlines.

Montana Renewables converted an oil refinery in Montana and is expanding it into one of North America's largest SAF sites. EcoCeres turns waste oils in Asia into fuel and supplies carriers like China's SF Airlines. SkyNRG started by sourcing and selling SAF to airlines, and is now building its own plant in the Netherlands. Each found a route that works today, though none has shown how to grow far beyond waste oils.

We'll look at how these companies secured feedstock and buyers before scaling up, and what that teaches the next generation of SAF plants.