Make better decisions on the AI chip market

Updated October 202670+ pagesPDF

AI Chips Reality Check
Cover of NewMarketPitch's AI Chips Reality Check report, 2026 edition
Is Etched, an AI chip startup, really worth $21 billion? Mostly on promise. It has no published sales, and its announced contracts back only ~$1B of its value. The rest is a bet on its chip. Chart from NewMarketPitch's AI Chips report.
Can Google’s and Amazon’s own AI chips beat Nvidia? Not on size: Nvidia sells far more, $89B of data-center chips in a quarter. But their chips grow faster and won big lab orders, from Anthropic and OpenAI. Chart from NewMarketPitch's AI Chips report.
Is the money going to chips that compute or that connect? Mostly to compute. Two thirds went to chips that run AI in data centers. The chips that link them took a quarter, and $4.1B in 2026 alone, more than 2024 and 2025 together. Chart from NewMarketPitch's AI Chips report.
Etched or Positron: which new AI chip is closer to real sales? Etched, by one step: its own chip now runs at Jane Street, a trading firm. Positron runs at Jump Trading and Oracle, but on FPGAs. Chart from NewMarketPitch's AI Chips report.
Can anyone dent Nvidia’s lead in the AI chip market? Not yet. In its latest quarter Nvidia sold $89B of data-center chips, 5 times Broadcom’s AI chips and ~490 times Cerebras’ sales. Chart from NewMarketPitch's AI Chips report.
How much faster are the new AI chips at answering, really? Much faster. On the same model Cerebras writes ~1,730 tokens a second, ~5 times the fastest GPU cloud. Groq’s lead is much smaller. Chart from NewMarketPitch's AI Chips report.
Who is winning the AI labs’ giant chip orders? Not the startups. The giants’ own chips (~18 GW) and Nvidia and AMD (~24 GW) split them. Startups got ~2%, one deal: Cerebras with OpenAI. Chart from NewMarketPitch's AI Chips report.
Did Nvidia get pushed out of China after the US chip bans? Largely, yes. As the US rules tightened, Nvidia’s share of China’s AI chips fell from ~95% to ~8% expected in 2026. Huawei is expected to take about half. Chart from NewMarketPitch's AI Chips report.
How much did the tech giants pay for AI chip startups? Up to $17B. Nvidia paid $17B to license Groq’s chip and hire its founders, five times the next deal. Outright purchases went for $0.3B to $3.25B. Chart from NewMarketPitch's AI Chips report.

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Inside the report

  • What has changed in the last 12 months
  • What works today, and what’s still hype
  • What are the biggest unsolved problems
  • What technologies are gaining traction
  • Who are the top companies today
  • Who’s ahead, and who’s falling behind
  • What are their valuations
  • Who’s getting funded, and by whom
  • Which business models are winning
  • Which investors are making the biggest bets
  • Where are the biggest opportunities
  • Who are the likely future winners
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Verified data with sourcesUpdated in October 2026