How's Moderna doing these days?

Is Moderna finally recovering from its post-COVID collapse?

Moderna is making a real scientific comeback, but its business is still struggling to recover from the collapse in COVID vaccine sales.

The American biotechnology company has expanded beyond COVID-19 vaccines, secured approval for its first influenza vaccine, and delivered impressive Phase 3 results for a personalized cancer treatment developed with Merck. Yet Moderna continues to lose billions of dollars, and its newer products have barely started replacing the revenue it earned during the pandemic.

The contrast is striking. Moderna generated $19.3 billion in revenue in 2022, compared with just $1.94 billion in 2025. Its latest reported quarter produced $145 million in revenue and a $782 million net loss.

Meanwhile, its experimental melanoma treatment has shown a 42% reduction in the risk of cancer recurrence or death when added to Merck's Keytruda.

We now have a company whose scientific progress looks much stronger than its financial results. The big question is how quickly Moderna can turn those discoveries into actual sales.

How far have Moderna's sales fallen since the pandemic?

Moderna's annual revenue has collapsed by roughly 90% from its pandemic peak, making it one of the clearest examples of how quickly the COVID vaccine boom disappeared.

According to its annual SEC filings, Moderna generated approximately $18.47 billion in 2021 and $19.26 billion in 2022. Revenue then dropped to $6.85 billion in 2023, $3.24 billion in 2024, and $1.94 billion in 2025.

Over three years, Moderna lost approximately $17.32 billion in annual revenue. Its 2025 business was only about one-tenth the size of its 2022 business. A drop this steep after a boom is the kind of shift we follow quarter by quarter in our market report about biotechnology.

The decline has also been remarkably consistent. Revenue fell by 64% in 2023, another 53% in 2024, and 40% in 2025. Although the annual percentage drops have become smaller, sales have continued shrinking.

Moderna is now trying to reverse that trend. Its first-half 2026 revenue increased to $534 million from $250 million a year earlier, largely because of international COVID vaccine deliveries.

The improvement is substantial, but we still need a full year of growth before calling the revenue decline over.

Year	Revenue	Annual change	Versus 2022 peak
2019	$60M	-55.6%	-99.7%
2020	$803M	+1,238%	-95.8%
2021	$18.47B	+2,200%	-4.1%
2022	$19.26B	+4.3%	Peak
2023	$6.85B	-64.4%	-64.4%
2024	$3.24B	-52.7%	-83.2%
2025	$1.94B	-39.9%	-89.9%
2026, first half	$534M	+113.6% YoY	Half-year figure

Is Moderna actually growing again in 2026?

Moderna has returned to revenue growth in 2026, although most of the improvement comes from international vaccine contracts rather than a sudden resurgence in consumer demand.

The company's first-half revenue increased by $284 million compared with the previous year. International product sales reached approximately $303 million, up from $81 million.

Europe accounted for $255 million of those international sales, reflecting deliveries under government purchasing arrangements. Moderna has also developed manufacturing and supply partnerships in countries including Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom, and Brazil.

We can see how much these contracts affect the numbers by looking at the second quarter separately. Global COVID vaccine sales actually declined from $114 million to $91 million, even as total quarterly revenue increased slightly from $142 million to $145 million. Manufacturing-readiness payments and other revenue filled the gap.

Moderna's management has maintained a target of up to 10% revenue growth for 2026. Reaching that upper end would bring annual revenue to approximately $2.14 billion.

That would mark the company's first annual sales increase since 2022, but the rebound would still be modest compared with the revenue lost over the preceding three years.

Is Moderna still dependent on COVID vaccines?

Moderna still relies on COVID vaccines for almost all its product revenue, despite having several other approved vaccines.

Its first-half 2026 financial statements show $436 million in COVID vaccine sales and only $10 million from RSV vaccines. COVID therefore accounted for approximately 97.8% of Moderna's $446 million in total product sales.

The company has nonetheless made progress within the COVID market. Its newer vaccine, mNEXSPIKE, accounted for approximately 24% of U.S. retail COVID vaccinations during the 2025–2026 season and around 34% among adults aged 65 and older, according to Moderna's commercial updates.

That older population is especially valuable because its risk of severe COVID outcomes remains higher, making recurring vaccination more relevant.

Moderna is also competing against Pfizer and BioNTech's Comirnaty, which benefited from an enormous global distribution network during the pandemic.

The difficulty is that a larger share of a shrinking market may still produce lower revenue. Moderna has gained ground with mNEXSPIKE, but total COVID vaccine sales remain far below their pandemic levels.

With approximately 98% of product revenue still coming from one disease category, Moderna's commercial diversification has barely begun.

Why hasn't Moderna's RSV vaccine taken off?

Moderna's RSV vaccine, mRESVIA, has been a commercial disappointment so far, partly because Pfizer and GSK reached the market first.

Moderna launched mRESVIA in 2024, after GSK's Arexvy and Pfizer's Abrysvo had already established themselves among healthcare providers and vaccination programs.

The results show how difficult that late entry has been. Moderna generated just $10 million in global RSV sales during the first half of 2026. For comparison, COVID vaccine sales reached $436 million during the same period. Arriving after established rivals is a hard way to enter, and we map who leads each part of the field in our report on biotechnology.

mRESVIA has continued gaining regulatory approvals, including authorization for certain higher-risk adults aged 18–59 in the United States. Moderna has also secured approvals in several international markets.

One potentially important development came when six European countries joined a procurement agreement covering up to 24 million doses of mRESVIA.

That arrangement could help Moderna reach customers through national vaccination programs rather than compete primarily through U.S. retail channels. However, the 24 million doses represent a maximum purchasing framework, not completed orders or recorded revenue.

We have yet to see evidence that RSV can become a major business for Moderna. Regulatory expansion has been encouraging, but its actual sales remain tiny.

Could Moderna's new flu vaccine become a big seller?

Moderna's newly approved flu vaccine, mFLUSIVA, is probably its best near-term opportunity to build a substantial vaccine business outside COVID.

The FDA approved mFLUSIVA in August 2026 for adults aged 50 and older, making it the first mRNA-based seasonal influenza vaccine authorized in the United States.

Its clinical results provide a concrete selling point. In a study involving approximately 40,000 participants, mFLUSIVA reduced influenza cases by about 27% compared with a conventional flu vaccine among adults aged 50–64.

The FDA granted traditional approval for that age group and accelerated approval for adults aged 65 and older, based on immune-response evidence and requiring further confirmation of clinical benefit.

Moderna now has a product that can compete in an established annual vaccination market. The challenge is that Sanofi, GSK, and CSL Seqirus already have longstanding relationships with pharmacies, distributors, and healthcare systems.

The market also has very different economics from pandemic COVID vaccination. Seasonal flu vaccines face established pricing, insurance coverage rules, and annual purchasing cycles.

What we want to see now is whether mFLUSIVA can win meaningful pharmacy distribution and repeat orders. The approval is a major scientific achievement, but commercial success will be measured in doses sold.

Will Moderna's combined flu and COVID vaccine make a difference?

Moderna's combined flu and COVID vaccine could make seasonal vaccination easier, although it remains too early to know whether people will choose it over separate shots.

The European Commission authorized mCOMBRIAX in April 2026 for adults aged 50 and older. The vaccine protects against both influenza and COVID-19 through a single injection.

The convenience is straightforward. Someone already planning to receive both vaccines could avoid a second injection, which may appeal to older adults and healthcare providers organizing seasonal vaccination programs.

There are practical complications, though. COVID and influenza vaccination recommendations can differ, and national authorities must decide how the combined product fits existing programs.

Moderna has also pursued regulatory approvals in Japan, Canada, and Australia. Its U.S. regulatory pathway has been more complicated, and the company was still seeking guidance on refiling its application after an earlier setback.

As of its latest reported financial results, mCOMBRIAX had not generated commercial sales.

The product gives Moderna another way to compete in seasonal vaccination, especially in Europe. Its usefulness is easy to understand; the size of its future market is much harder to establish.

Is Moderna's cancer vaccine actually working?

Moderna's personalized cancer vaccine is now backed by positive Phase 3 evidence, with a 42% reduction in the risk of melanoma recurrence or death when combined with Merck's Keytruda.

The treatment, called intismeran autogene, is developed individually for each patient using mutations identified in their tumor. Its purpose is to teach the immune system to recognize cancer cells that may remain after surgery.

In the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial involving 1,137 patients with high-risk melanoma, researchers compared intismeran plus Keytruda with Keytruda alone. Large randomized trials move a technology off paper, and we sort which biotech technologies are proven in our report covering the biotechnology market.

Detailed results released in October 2026 showed that approximately 82.2% of patients receiving the combination remained free from recurrence after two years, compared with 70.0% in the control group.

That is an absolute improvement of 12.2 percentage points. In practical terms, approximately 12 additional patients out of every 100 remained recurrence-free at two years.

The combination also reduced the risk of distant metastasis or death by 38%. Both outcomes were statistically significant.

Overall survival results are still immature, so researchers cannot yet establish the treatment's full effect on how long patients live. Regulatory approval is also still pending.

Even with those limitations, this is a major clinical result. Moderna and Merck have demonstrated a clear benefit in a large randomized Phase 3 trial, making personalized mRNA cancer treatment considerably more credible than it was just a few years ago.

Could Moderna's cancer vaccine become a billion-dollar business?

Moderna's cancer vaccine has a realistic path toward blockbuster sales, but its eventual revenue will depend heavily on which cancers it can treat beyond melanoma.

The initial opportunity is patients with high-risk melanoma whose tumors have been surgically removed. These patients may still experience recurrence, even after receiving established immunotherapies such as Keytruda.

Intismeran could become an important additional treatment if regulators approve the combination and healthcare systems agree to cover it.

The larger opportunity comes from expanding into other cancers. Moderna and Merck's development program includes studies in lung, bladder, and kidney cancers, with additional research in other tumor types.

The partnership now covers nine Phase 2 and Phase 3 clinical trials, according to Merck's August 2026 announcement. That is a substantial commitment to exploring the technology across multiple indications.

There are also manufacturing challenges. Unlike a standardized vaccine produced in large batches, intismeran requires tumor sequencing, selection of patient-specific targets, and individualized production.

Every additional patient creates a separate manufacturing process. Moderna will need to demonstrate that this can be done reliably and economically at commercial scale.

Merck's involvement brings oncology expertise and an existing global commercial network, although Moderna will share the economics under their collaboration.

We would be cautious about assigning a specific multibillion-dollar revenue figure until pricing, approval conditions, manufacturing costs, and additional cancer trial results become clearer.

Why did Moderna's stock crash after good cancer vaccine results?

Moderna's stock fell sharply after its latest cancer vaccine data because investors had already priced in extraordinary expectations for the treatment.

Shares dropped more than 20% during the trading session following the early release of detailed melanoma trial results, despite the study meeting its main clinical objectives.

The decline followed a remarkable rally earlier in 2026. Moderna's share price had risen severalfold as investors anticipated a breakthrough in personalized oncology.

By late September, some analysts were already questioning how much future cancer revenue the stock price assumed.

Citigroup, for example, downgraded Moderna to Sell and set an $80 price target. Its analyst argued that a share price around $200 would require approximately $13 billion in annual oncology revenue, far above the firm's own commercial forecast.

That estimate helps explain the market's reaction. Investors were no longer evaluating only whether the melanoma treatment worked. They were also betting on rapid adoption across multiple cancers.

The Phase 3 data were genuinely impressive, but they could not establish those broader commercial assumptions.

Moderna's stock is therefore unusually sensitive to changes in cancer-treatment expectations. Its current financial results are too small to explain the much larger valuation investors have sometimes placed on its future pipeline.

Is Moderna's mRNA technology finally proving useful beyond COVID?

Moderna has now shown that mRNA can work in several different medical settings, although its failed CMV vaccine is a reminder that the technology still has limits.

The FDA approval of mFLUSIVA demonstrated its usefulness for seasonal influenza prevention. European approval of mCOMBRIAX showed that multiple respiratory targets could be combined in one vaccine.

The melanoma results went further by demonstrating clinical efficacy in personalized cancer treatment. Proof that a platform works beyond its first product is one of the drivers we weigh for the market in our biotechnology market report.

These applications are quite different. Flu vaccines are manufactured for large populations, combination vaccines address several infections in one product, and personalized cancer treatments are designed for individual patients.

However, Moderna has also experienced a major failure with mRNA-1647, its experimental cytomegalovirus vaccine.

In October 2025, the company announced that the Phase 3 trial had failed to meet its primary efficacy endpoint. It subsequently discontinued the program aimed at preventing congenital CMV infection.

The norovirus candidate mRNA-1403 has also faced difficulties. A Phase 3 interim analysis in July 2026 did not meet the criteria for early success, forcing Moderna to prepare an additional enrollment cohort.

That result did not establish that the norovirus vaccine was ineffective, but it delayed the possibility of a successful final readout.

The platform has produced approved vaccines and promising cancer therapies, while also encountering expensive late-stage failures. There is still plenty of development risk.

Which Moderna treatments could reach the market next?

Moderna's most important upcoming commercial opportunity is its personalized melanoma treatment, while several other programs could take considerably longer to generate revenue.

The company's approved vaccine portfolio already includes COVID, RSV, influenza, and a combined flu/COVID product in Europe.

Among investigational therapies, intismeran has the clearest late-stage efficacy evidence. Moderna also has ongoing development programs for propionic acidemia, norovirus, and other cancers.

Propionic acidemia is particularly interesting because it involves treating a rare inherited metabolic disorder rather than preventing an infection. Moderna's mRNA-3927 aims to help patients produce enzyme activity that their bodies cannot adequately provide.

The company has worked with Recordati on this program and has pursued registrational development, but definitive efficacy and commercialization still need to be established.

The table below compares Moderna's major products and programs by the type of evidence supporting them, rather than simply counting pipeline announcements.

Moderna product or program	Medical use	Current position	Biggest remaining challenge
Spikevax	COVID prevention	Approved and commercialized	Seasonal demand
mNEXSPIKE	COVID prevention	Approved and gaining share	Overall COVID market size
mRESVIA	RSV prevention	Approved, limited sales	Competing with Pfizer and GSK
mFLUSIVA	Influenza prevention	FDA approved	Distribution and repeat sales
mCOMBRIAX	Flu and COVID prevention	EU approved	Commercial uptake
Intismeran + Keytruda	Personalized melanoma treatment	Positive Phase 3	Regulatory approval and launch
mRNA-3927	Propionic acidemia	Registrational development	Confirming clinical benefit
mRNA-1403	Norovirus prevention	Phase 3 continuing	Final efficacy results
mRNA-1647	CMV prevention	Development discontinued	Failed Phase 3 endpoint

Is Moderna becoming a cancer treatment company?

Moderna is starting to look like a serious cancer-treatment developer, although vaccines still account for virtually all of its current commercial business.

The personalized melanoma program has created a realistic opportunity to sell treatments through oncology centers rather than rely exclusively on pharmacies and vaccination campaigns.

This would be a major change for the company.

Selling cancer treatments requires close relationships with oncologists, specialized manufacturing processes, diagnostic testing, and reimbursement arrangements that differ significantly from those used for seasonal vaccines.

Merck can help with several of those challenges because Keytruda is already an established cancer treatment with a large global commercial infrastructure.

Moderna's rare-disease programs could also broaden its business. Treatments for propionic acidemia and methylmalonic acidemia would involve specialized patient populations and potentially repeated dosing.

However, the financial transition has barely started. Moderna's oncology and rare-disease pipelines have not yet produced meaningful commercial revenue.

The clinical progress is enough to take its broader therapeutic ambitions seriously. Now Moderna has to build a business capable of delivering those medicines consistently.

Is Moderna still losing billions of dollars?

Moderna remains deeply unprofitable, even after cutting its annual losses by roughly 40% over two years.

The company's 2025 annual report shows a $2.82 billion net loss on $1.94 billion in revenue. Its operating expenses reached approximately $5.02 billion, including $3.13 billion in research and development spending.

That means Moderna spent more on research alone than it generated in total annual revenue. Spending more on research than a company earns is one of the less obvious risks we rate in our market report about biotechnology.

The losses have nevertheless improved considerably. Moderna recorded a $4.71 billion net loss in 2023 and a $3.56 billion loss in 2024 before reducing it further in 2025.

The latest quarter continued the pattern of heavy spending. Moderna generated $145 million in revenue while spending $651 million on R&D, resulting in a net loss of approximately $782 million.

For 2026, management expects around $2.9 billion in research spending and approximately $1 billion in selling, general and administrative expenses.

Even if revenue reaches the upper end of its guidance, Moderna's two largest operating expense categories alone would exceed sales by roughly $1.76 billion.

Moderna therefore has considerable work ahead before profitability becomes realistic. Its cost reductions have helped, but the revenue base remains much too small for the company's research ambitions.

Has Moderna managed to cut costs without damaging its pipeline?

Moderna has made unusually large spending cuts while keeping several important clinical programs alive, although some research projects have been abandoned.

Between 2023 and 2025, annual operating expenses fell from $11.09 billion to $5.02 billion. That represents a reduction of approximately $6.07 billion, or 55%.

Research and development spending declined from $4.85 billion to $3.13 billion over the same period. Selling, general and administrative costs fell from $1.55 billion to approximately $1.02 billion.

Part of the savings came from lower manufacturing costs as pandemic production wound down. Moderna also narrowed its pipeline and reduced investment in less promising programs.

The CMV vaccine failure helped eliminate a major potential source of future spending. Meanwhile, the company continued funding the melanoma program, influenza vaccine development, and rare-disease research.

That combination is important. Moderna has managed to produce major clinical progress even as its annual expenses fell dramatically.

Still, there is a limit to how much further the company can cut without affecting development timelines. Its most valuable future treatments will need expensive clinical studies, regulatory work, and manufacturing investments before they can generate revenue.

How much cash does Moderna have left?

Moderna still has a substantial cash cushion, but its financial resources are shrinking as the company continues funding research and absorbing large losses.

At the end of June 2026, Moderna reported approximately $6.9 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and investments, down from $7.5 billion at the end of the previous quarter.

The company subsequently made a $950 million litigation settlement payment in July, further reducing available liquidity.

Management expects to finish 2026 with approximately $4.7 billion to $5.2 billion in cash and investments, excluding any additional borrowing under its available credit facility.

Moderna also arranged access to a $1.5 billion term-loan facility in November 2025, including an initial $600 million borrowing and additional amounts subject to conditions.

The company therefore has meaningful financial flexibility, especially compared with smaller biotechnology developers that need to raise capital after each major clinical trial.

But we should also compare that cash position with spending. Moderna expects nearly $3 billion in annual R&D expenses, alongside substantial commercial and administrative costs.

The cash balance can support ongoing development, but another prolonged period of weak sales would put more pressure on the company to reduce spending, borrow, or raise capital.

Are Moderna's international government deals paying off?

Moderna's government partnerships are already helping its revenue recover, especially in Europe, where vaccine deliveries have become increasingly important.

The company's first-half 2026 international product sales reached approximately $303 million, compared with $143 million in the United States.

International markets therefore accounted for roughly 68% of product revenue, a significant change from Moderna's earlier dependence on the U.S. market. Who buys these vaccines, and which problems they pay to solve, is part of the customer picture in our report on biotechnology.

Its partnerships cover more than vaccine supply. Arrangements in the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia also involve manufacturing infrastructure and preparedness for future infectious-disease threats.

Moderna's second-quarter filing showed how these arrangements can support revenue even when ordinary vaccine sales are weak. Deliveries under its United Kingdom partnership and manufacturing-readiness payments helped compensate for lower COVID vaccine sales elsewhere.

The European RSV procurement framework and Brazil vaccine manufacturing partnership may expand that international footprint further.

These agreements give Moderna access to large institutional buyers and can make its sales more predictable over several years.

However, government purchasing still depends on public-health priorities, contract terms, and national budgets. The latest revenue increase partly reflects the timing of deliveries, which can create sharp differences between quarters.

For now, international contracts are helping stabilize Moderna's business, but they have not created enough recurring revenue to offset its research spending.

Is Moderna stronger today than it was two years ago?

Moderna is a much stronger drug developer today, although its commercial business and balance sheet have become smaller.

Two years ago, the company was largely defined by declining COVID vaccine sales and uncertainty about whether its mRNA technology could deliver successful products outside that market.

Since then, Moderna has added new approved vaccines and secured positive Phase 3 results for a personalized cancer treatment.

The melanoma data are especially important because they give Moderna a realistic entry into therapeutic oncology, a business with very different customers and economics from seasonal vaccination.

At the same time, Moderna's annual revenue fell from $3.24 billion in 2024 to $1.94 billion in 2025, while its continued losses reduced financial flexibility.

The failure of its CMV vaccine and the delay in its norovirus program also show that clinical progress has been uneven.

We would therefore rate Moderna's scientific position significantly higher than it was two years ago. Its financial situation, however, still reflects a company trying to build its next major business before its remaining pandemic-era resources run down.

What would prove that Moderna's turnaround is finally working?

Moderna's turnaround would become convincing once its newer products generate substantial sales outside COVID and the company starts narrowing losses through revenue growth rather than cost cuts alone.

The clearest near-term test will be the commercial performance of mFLUSIVA. If Moderna can gain meaningful share in seasonal influenza vaccination, it will finally have a sizeable market outside COVID contributing to its sales.

The next major test is oncology. Intismeran still needs regulatory approval, reimbursement arrangements, and a reliable manufacturing process before Moderna can sell it commercially.

A successful melanoma launch would be particularly valuable because it could establish a new source of revenue with different demand patterns from respiratory vaccines.

Beyond those products, Moderna needs to show that its international government partnerships can support more consistent annual sales, rather than produce isolated quarters of strong growth.

Its financial results will then reveal whether operating expenses are moving closer to revenue. A company generating roughly $2 billion in sales cannot indefinitely sustain annual research and administrative spending approaching $4 billion without depending on external financing or existing reserves.

As seen above, Moderna has already done much of the scientific work needed to make a turnaround possible. Commercial performance will determine how much of that progress translates into financial recovery.

So, how is Moderna actually doing these days?

Moderna is recovering scientifically and has finally returned to some revenue growth, but its financial turnaround is still far from complete.

The company's position is considerably more promising than its recent sales numbers suggest. It now has an approved mRNA influenza vaccine, a combined flu/COVID product authorized in Europe, and strong Phase 3 evidence for a personalized melanoma treatment developed with Merck.

The cancer program is particularly significant. Its 42% reduction in the risk of melanoma recurrence or death gives Moderna a credible opportunity to enter therapeutic oncology, potentially opening a much larger business beyond preventive vaccines.

However, COVID vaccines still dominate its product sales, the company continues to record multibillion-dollar annual losses, and its cash reserves are gradually declining.

There is also a timing problem. Moderna needs substantial revenue from new products relatively soon, while oncology launches, additional regulatory approvals, and expansion into other cancers could take years.

Our conclusion is that Moderna has a much better scientific future than it did two years ago, but investors are being asked to pay for commercial success that has not happened yet.

The company has proved that its mRNA technology can deliver more than COVID vaccines. Whether Moderna becomes a successful diversified biotechnology company now depends on how quickly those breakthroughs turn into products that people actually buy and healthcare systems are willing to fund.